I don't think there is going to be a full-scale war in Somalia, but it appears that low-intensity warfare against Ethiopian troops will continue until they are expelled.
posted by Steve | 12:25 AM
Anarchic Civilization
It's gaining ground.
- From Gulf News:Suddenly, the poorest and most war-...
- These might be worth checking out:http://www.sayla...
- From Alarab Online about the current situation in ...
- From Middle East Online"The Islamists are unpredic...
- Here's some very good news coming out of Somalia. ...
- Here's an interview with a high-ranking official o...
- From PINR:The difficulties that would be faced by ...
- In Somalia, Islamic Law Is Far From UniformAlso he...
- We're supposed to believe that Aden Hashi Ayro, th...
- From News24Mohammed Qazilbash of the relief agency...
4 Comments:
It seems to be the case that the UIC is stronger than the ethiopians and that is of course good.
steve,
first off great blog, keep up the good work! this is an interesting topic
im wondering how this will affect the political structure that currently exists in somalia. would this not lead to greater centralization as the threat from ethopia becomes more apparent.
from what i have read the UIC has started to act more and more like a government, banning eloping in one town and placing other restrictions in other towns. perhaps you can shed some light on the CURRENT status of just exactly how "anarchistic" somalia is right now. how many autnomous courts exist?
keep up the good work!
Thanks, Anonymous!
I think the threat from Ethiopia has been declining for some time. In fact, there were a few Africans in the BBC Have Your Say forum that I linked to that said that the Ethiopian regime itself was on the verge of collapse. Also, I think that while the existence of a common enemy on their soil would tend to unite Somalis in the effort to drive them out, this won't translate into political centralization.
I think that the checks on UIC power are such--thanks to cheap and readily available guns--that they can only restrict things when such restrictions are popular with the general public and the business community in particular.
It seems to me that ALL of the UIC courts (I think 14 in Mogadishu and I'm guessing at least 10 outside of it) are autonomous. I've seen the phrase "under the banner of the Islamic Courts" used but not "under the authority of the UIC." There is also one court in northern Mog that isn't under their banner, as well as some small town militias that are friendly with them but not under their banner.
It turns out I might be wrong. See my new post.
Post a Comment
<< Home